The Path to War: Political Tensions (2018-2020)¶

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Section: The Tigray War (2020-2022) | Next: Conflict Overview & Key Actors

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This section contains detailed information about political tensions and events leading to armed conflict. Content is based on verified sources and international reporting.

The Tigray War, which raged from November 2020 to November 2022, was not a sudden eruption of violence but the culmination of years of escalating political tensions rooted in competing visions for the Ethiopian state. The war's devastating consequences will reverberate for generations, but understanding its origins requires examining the dramatic political shifts that preceded it.

The End of TPLF Dominance (1991-2018)¶

From 1991 to 2018, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) was the core and most powerful component of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition, effectively controlling the country's political and economic levers. While this period saw significant economic development, it was also characterized by:

Political repression and restrictions on civil liberties
Ethnic tensions arising from perceptions that a Tigrayan minority (constituting roughly 6% of the population) held disproportionate power
Growing resentment among other, larger ethnic groups like the Oromo and Amhara

The Rise of Abiy Ahmed¶

Widespread anti-government protests, particularly from the Oromo community, led to a dramatic change in leadership within the EPRDF. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo politician, became Prime Minister, initiating a series of sweeping reforms that would fundamentally alter Ethiopia's political landscape.

The Ideological Divide: Two Visions of Ethiopia¶

Abiy's Centralized Vision¶

Dismantled the EPRDF coalition and merged its constituent parties into the new Prosperity Party in 2019
Promoted a pan-Ethiopian nationalism that emphasized unity over ethnic identity
Advocated for political centralization and reduced regional autonomy

TPLF's Federalist Response¶

The TPLF vehemently refused to join the Prosperity Party, viewing the move as:

A direct assault on the principle of ethnic federalism
An attack on the constitutional system they had architected
A threat to regional autonomy guaranteed to ethnic states

Constitutional Crisis

This ideological clash formed the primary political fault line: a centralized, pan-Ethiopian vision versus a federation of autonomous ethnic nations.

The Eritrea Factor: A Strategic Encirclement¶

Abiy's most significant foreign policy initiative proved to be a critical turning point: a historic rapprochement with Eritrea and its president, Isaias Afwerki, a long-standing and bitter enemy of the TPLF.

The Peace Deal's Consequences¶

While the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace deal was celebrated internationally (earning Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize), it had profound strategic implications:

Created a powerful anti-TPLF alliance on Tigray's northern border
Effectively cornered the region's leadership
Transformed an internal political dispute into an existential security crisis for the TPLF

The Breaking Point: Electoral Crisis of 2020¶

The COVID-19 Election Postponement¶

In 2020, the federal government postponed national elections, citing the COVID-19 pandemic. This decision became the immediate trigger for the conflict:

Federal Government Position¶

Elections were postponed for public health reasons
The decision was constitutionally justified under emergency powers

TPLF Response¶

Rejected the postponement as an unconstitutional power grab
Viewed it as Abiy's attempt to extend his mandate illegally
Proceeded to hold regional elections in September 2020

Escalating Tensions¶

The TPLF's decision to hold regional elections was met with severe federal government responses:

Legal Challenge: Federal government declared the elections illegal
Economic Pressure: Addis Ababa cut federal funding to Tigray
Political Isolation: TPLF described funding cuts as "tantamount to a declaration of war"

The Immediate Triggers¶

Military Positioning¶

By late 2020, both sides were preparing for potential conflict:

Federal forces maintained significant presence in Tigray through the Northern Command
TPLF forces controlled regional security apparatus and militias
Eritrean forces were reportedly positioning along the northern border

The Final Escalation¶

On November 3, 2020, fighting erupted when TPLF forces attacked the federal military's Northern Command headquarters in Mekelle. The TPLF claimed this was a pre-emptive strike against an imminent federal and Eritrean invasion.

Point of No Return

This attack marked the transition from political crisis to armed conflict, beginning what would become one of the deadliest wars of the 21^st century.

Timeline: Critical Events Leading to War¶

Date	Event	Significance
April 2018	Abiy Ahmed becomes Prime Minister	Beginning of major political reforms
July 2018	Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement signed	Strategic isolation of TPLF begins
December 2019	Prosperity Party formed, TPLF refuses to join	Formal political break between TPLF and federal government
March 2020	National elections postponed due to COVID-19	Constitutional crisis begins
September 9, 2020	TPLF holds regional elections	Direct defiance of federal authority
October 2020	Federal funding to Tigray cut	Economic pressure escalates
November 3, 2020	TPLF attacks Northern Command	War begins

Key Actors and Their Motivations¶

Federal Government (Abiy Ahmed Administration)¶

Goals:

Establish centralized authority
Reduce regional autonomy
Create unified Ethiopian identity

Motivations:

Belief that ethnic federalism had failed
Desire to reduce TPLF influence
Response to popular demands for change

TPLF Leadership¶

Goals:

Maintain regional autonomy
Preserve ethnic federalism
Protect Tigrayan interests

Motivations:

Fear of political marginalization
Belief in constitutional rights
Concern about historical grievances

Eritrean Government (Isaias Afwerki)¶

Goals:

Eliminate TPLF as regional power
Settle historical scores
Gain strategic influence in Ethiopia

Motivations:

Decades of enmity with TPLF
Opportunity to reshape Horn of Africa
Economic and political interests

The Broader Context: Historical Grievances¶

The path to war was not merely about immediate political disputes but was deeply rooted in:

Tigrayan Historical Memory¶

Sense of marginalization despite founding role in Ethiopian state
Memory of past conflicts and perceived injustices
Pride in resistance tradition dating back to earlier Woyane movements

Ethiopian National Tensions¶

Ethnic versus national identity debates
Competition for resources and political representation
Legacy of authoritarian rule and human rights concerns

Regional Dynamics¶

Horn of Africa instability affecting all neighboring countries
Competition between regional powers
International involvement in domestic affairs

Sources and Further Reading

This content is based on comprehensive analysis from international reporting, academic research, and verified documentation. Key sources include reports from the International Crisis Group, Council on Foreign Relations, and academic analyses by leading Ethiopia experts.

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