The Fragile Peace & Aftermath¶

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Section: The Tigray War (2020-2022) | Previous: Economic Devastation | War Section: Memorial

Post-Conflict Analysis

This section examines the post-war period following the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, ongoing challenges, and prospects for sustainable peace. Content based on current political analysis and international monitoring reports.

The signing of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) in Pretoria, South Africa, on November 2, 2022, formally ended two years of brutal warfare. However, the agreement marked the beginning of a new, complex, and highly fragile phase of post-conflict transition that continues to face significant challenges.

The Pretoria Agreement: Framework for Peace¶

Key Provisions of the Agreement¶

Immediate Measures¶

Cessation of Hostilities: Permanent end to all combat operations
Humanitarian Access: Unimpeded access for humanitarian organizations
Protection of Civilians: Commitment to protect civilian populations
Restoration of Services: Gradual restoration of basic services

Implementation Framework¶

Disarmament Process: Systematic and verifiable disarmament of TPLF fighters
Federal Authority: Restoration of federal government control in Tigray
Security Arrangements: Deployment of federal security forces
Interim Administration: Establishment of Tigray Interim Administration (TIA)

Long-term Commitments¶

Transitional Justice: Development of transitional justice mechanisms
Reconstruction: Commitment to post-conflict reconstruction
Political Process: Path toward inclusive political participation
Reconciliation: Efforts to promote social reconciliation

International Framework¶

African Union Role¶

Mediation: AU-led mediation process resulting in agreement
Monitoring: Ongoing monitoring of implementation
Technical Support: Provision of technical assistance
Regional Integration: Support for regional stability

Implementation Support¶

International Partners: Support from US, EU, and other international actors
UN Agencies: Humanitarian and development support
Financial Institutions: Economic recovery and reconstruction support
Civil Society: Role of civil society organizations in implementation

Implementation Progress and Challenges¶

Achieved Milestones¶

Security Improvements¶

End of Active Fighting: Large-scale combat operations ceased
Humanitarian Access: Significant improvement in humanitarian aid delivery
Civilian Movement: Gradual restoration of civilian movement
Communications: Partial restoration of telecommunications and internet

Service Restoration¶

Banking Services: Gradual reopening of banks and financial services
Power Supply: Restoration of electricity to major urban areas
Transportation: Limited restoration of air and road transport
Education: Reopening of schools and educational institutions

Ongoing Challenges¶

Incomplete Disarmament¶

TDF Forces: Questions about complete disarmament of Tigray Defense Forces
Weapons Collection: Challenges in comprehensive weapons collection
Ex-combatant Integration: Slow progress in demobilization and reintegration
Verification: Limited international verification of disarmament

Territorial Disputes¶

Western Tigray: Continued Amhara administration of disputed territories
Eritrean Presence: Ongoing Eritrean military presence in some areas
Displacement: Hundreds of thousands unable to return to homes
Border Demarcation: Unresolved boundary demarcation issues

Internal Tigrayan Political Dynamics¶

TPLF Factional Struggles¶

Leadership Divisions¶

Getachew Reda Faction: TIA President and pragmatic implementation approach
Debretsion Gebremichael Faction: TPLF Chairman and hardline approach
Policy Differences: Disagreements over Pretoria Agreement implementation
Institutional Control: Competition for control of regional institutions

2024 TPLF Congress¶

Leadership Changes: Contested congress results and leadership disputes
Expulsions: Expulsion of Getachew Reda and other TIA-aligned leaders
Legitimacy Questions: Disputes over congress legitimacy and procedures
Political Vacuum: Risk of institutional paralysis and political vacuum

Tigray Interim Administration¶

Establishment and Mandate¶

Formation: Federal government appointment of interim administration
Leadership: Getachew Reda as President
Scope: Temporary governance until new elections
Challenges: Limited authority and contested legitimacy

Governance Challenges¶

Capacity Constraints: Limited human and financial resources
Political Opposition: Opposition from TPLF hardline faction
Federal Relations: Balancing federal requirements with regional interests
Public Expectations: Managing high public expectations for change

Unresolved Territorial Issues¶

Western Tigray Occupation¶

Historical Context¶

Territorial Dispute: Long-standing disputes over Welkait-Tsegede areas
Ethnic Composition: Historically mixed ethnic composition
Administrative Changes: Transfer to Amhara administration during war
Constitutional Questions: Unclear constitutional status

Current Situation¶

Amhara Control: Continued de facto Amhara regional control
Population Displacement: Hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans displaced
Return Barriers: Obstacles preventing displaced population return
Economic Impact: Loss of agricultural and economic resources

Resolution Challenges¶

Political Sensitivity: Highly sensitive political issue for all parties
Constitutional Process: Need for constitutional resolution mechanism
International Involvement: Potential role for international mediation
Timeline Uncertainty: No clear timeline for resolution

Eritrean Military Presence¶

Continued Presence¶

Northern Border: Eritrean forces in several northern districts
Operational Control: Effective control over occupied territories
Civilian Impact: Ongoing attacks and human rights violations
Non-signatory Status: Eritrea not party to Pretoria Agreement

Security Implications¶

Civilian Protection: Continued threats to civilian security
Return Barriers: Preventing displaced population return
Regional Stability: Implications for broader regional stability
International Response: Limited international leverage over Eritrea

Justice and Accountability¶

Transitional Justice Framework¶

Pretoria Agreement Provisions¶

Transitional Justice Policy: Commitment to develop comprehensive policy
Truth-telling: Mechanisms for revealing truth about violations
Accountability: Measures for holding perpetrators accountable
Reparations: Programs for victim compensation and rehabilitation

Implementation Challenges¶

Political Will: Questions about genuine commitment to accountability
Eritrean Participation: Limited ability to hold Eritrean perpetrators accountable
Victim Participation: Ensuring meaningful victim involvement
Resource Constraints: Limited resources for comprehensive programs

International Justice Mechanisms¶

International Criminal Court¶

Jurisdiction Limitations: Ethiopia not party to Rome Statute
Complementarity: National jurisdiction over international crimes
Referral Options: UN Security Council referral possibilities
Evidence Preservation: Ongoing evidence collection efforts

Universal Jurisdiction¶

European Investigations: Several European countries opening investigations
Individual Accountability: Focus on individual criminal responsibility
Civil Society Role: Advocacy for international accountability
Sanctions Regimes: Targeted sanctions on responsible individuals

Humanitarian Recovery¶

Progress Achieved¶

Access Improvements¶

Aid Delivery: Significant increase in humanitarian aid delivery
Partner Presence: Return of international humanitarian organizations
Coverage Expansion: Expanded geographic coverage of assistance
Funding Increases: Increased international donor funding

Service Restoration¶

Healthcare: Gradual restoration of health services
Education: Reopening of schools and education programs
Nutrition: Increased food assistance and nutrition programs
Protection: Enhanced protection services for vulnerable populations

Continuing Needs¶

Scale of Need¶

Population in Need: Millions still requiring humanitarian assistance
Funding Gaps: Significant gaps in humanitarian funding
Access Challenges: Continued access restrictions in some areas
Capacity Constraints: Limited local implementation capacity

Long-term Recovery¶

Livelihood Restoration: Support for livelihood recovery and resilience
Infrastructure Rehabilitation: Major infrastructure reconstruction needs
Social Cohesion: Programs to rebuild social trust and cohesion
Trauma Healing: Mental health and psychosocial support programs

Economic Recovery Efforts¶

Government Initiatives¶

Federal Support¶

Reconstruction Funding: Federal government reconstruction commitments
Budget Allocation: Allocation of federal resources for recovery
Investment Incentives: Tax and other incentives for private investment
Infrastructure Projects: Major infrastructure reconstruction projects

Regional Programs¶

Recovery Planning: Development of comprehensive recovery plans
Local Capacity: Building local implementation capacity
Private Sector: Support for private sector recovery and growth
Employment: Job creation and livelihood support programs

International Support¶

Development Partners¶

World Bank: Assessment and reconstruction support
European Union: Gradual restoration of development cooperation
United Nations: Humanitarian-development nexus programming
Bilateral Donors: Support from various bilateral development partners

Private Sector Recovery¶

Business Restart: Support for small and medium enterprise restart
Investment Climate: Efforts to restore investor confidence
Market Restoration: Rehabilitation of market infrastructure
Financial Services: Restoration of banking and financial services

Prospects for Sustainable Peace¶

Positive Indicators¶

Conflict Termination¶

Violence Reduction: Significant reduction in large-scale violence
Civilian Protection: Improved protection of civilian populations
Humanitarian Access: Enhanced access for humanitarian assistance
Communication: Restoration of communication and transportation links

Institution Building¶

Governance Structures: Gradual restoration of governance institutions
Rule of Law: Efforts to restore rule of law and judicial systems
Civil Society: Re-emergence of civil society organizations
Media: Gradual restoration of media and information access

Risk Factors¶

Political Instability¶

Leadership Disputes: Internal TPLF leadership conflicts
Electoral Uncertainty: Unclear timeline and process for elections
Federal-Regional Relations: Tensions over federal-regional authority
Youth Frustration: High unemployment and limited opportunities

Unresolved Issues¶

Territorial Disputes: Ongoing disputes over Western Tigray
Accountability: Limited progress on transitional justice
Eritrean Presence: Continued Eritrean military presence
Economic Recovery: Slow pace of economic recovery

International Engagement¶

Sustained Support¶

Long-term Commitment: Need for sustained international engagement
Coordination: Improved coordination among international actors
Capacity Building: Support for local capacity development
Monitoring: Ongoing monitoring of peace agreement implementation

Regional Dynamics¶

Horn of Africa: Integration with broader regional stability efforts
Neighboring Countries: Role of Sudan, Eritrea, and others
Regional Organizations: AU, IGAD, and other regional body involvement
Cross-border Issues: Management of cross-border challenges

Lessons Learned and Future Outlook¶

Peace Process Lessons¶

Mediation Success Factors¶

African Leadership: Importance of African-led mediation
International Support: Value of coordinated international support
Stakeholder Inclusion: Importance of inclusive participation
Implementation Focus: Need for detailed implementation planning

Challenges and Gaps¶

Eritrean Inclusion: Importance of including all conflict parties
Territorial Issues: Need for addressing territorial disputes
Justice and Accountability: Balancing peace and justice imperatives
Local Ownership: Ensuring local ownership of peace processes

Future Scenarios¶

Best Case Scenario¶

Successful Implementation: Full implementation of Pretoria Agreement
Political Reconciliation: Resolution of internal political disputes
Territorial Resolution: Constitutional resolution of territorial disputes
Economic Recovery: Rapid economic recovery and development

Worst Case Scenario¶

Agreement Collapse: Breakdown of peace agreement implementation
Renewed Conflict: Return to large-scale armed conflict
Regional Instability: Spillover effects destabilizing region
Humanitarian Crisis: Return to humanitarian emergency conditions

Most Likely Scenario¶

Gradual Progress: Slow but steady implementation progress
Ongoing Challenges: Persistent but manageable challenges
International Support: Continued but fluctuating international engagement
Partial Recovery: Partial economic and social recovery

Current Status Assessment

Agreement Status: Partially implemented with ongoing challenges

Territorial Disputes: Western Tigray and Eritrean presence unresolved

Political Stability: Internal divisions threatening stability

International Engagement: Sustained support needed for success

Peace Durability: Fragile peace requiring continued attention

The path to sustainable peace in Tigray remains uncertain, with significant progress achieved but major challenges still ahead. The success of the peace process will depend on sustained commitment from all parties, continued international support, and resolution of fundamental issues including territorial disputes, accountability, and political reconciliation.

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