Current Affairs & Situation Report

Last Updated: January 10, 2026

Situation Status: Heightened political crisis, humanitarian emergency worsening as aid blockade tightens
Security Level: Critical; major clashes reported, Eritrean military buildup confirmed
Humanitarian Needs: 2.8 million people now require urgent assistance, famine conditions emerging
International Presence: UN operations restricted, several NGOs forced to suspend operations
Political Status: Interim administration paralyzed, federal relations at breaking point

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1. Current Governance Structure

1.1 Interim Regional Administration

The Interim Regional Administration faces paralysis following the January 5^th resignation of key cabinet members in protest of federal interference. The administration's authority has eroded significantly amid renewed conflict.

Key Leadership (January 2026)

Position	Official	Status	Background
Interim President	Lt. Gen. Tadesse Worede	Resigned Jan 5	Submitted resignation citing "impossible working conditions"
Deputy President	Amanuel Assefa	Acting President	Struggling to maintain administrative functions
Security Bureau Head	Gen. Fiseha Kidanu	Detained Jan 7	Arrested by federal security forces during border inspection

Leadership Changes and Political Context

Crisis Update: January 2026

• Interim President Tadesse Worede resigns
• Security Bureau Head Gen. Fiseha Kidanu arrested
• Three additional cabinet members resign in solidarity
• Federal government imposes travel restrictions on remaining officials

January 8 Emergency Meeting: Remaining cabinet declares "constitutional crisis," requests AU emergency session.

Current Status: Administration operating at 40% capacity, most decisions requiring federal approval.

Administrative Challenges

Governance Collapse

• 12 of 23 cabinet positions now vacant or filled by acting officials
• Federal police now controlling 8 of 12 regional ministry buildings
• Budget frozen since December 15, 2025
• Communication with districts reduced to 30% functionality

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1.2 TPLF Political Dynamics

Party effectively sidelined; remaining members either detained, in hiding, or cooperating with federal authorities. The Tigray Renewal Movement has gained significant grassroots support but faces crackdown. 1.3 In-Depth Analysis: The January 2026 Constitutional Crisis

Federal takeover of key regional institutions represents the most significant erosion of autonomy since the Pretoria agreement. DDR programs have completely collapsed, with former combatants returning to armed groups. 2. Security Situation 2.1 Current Security Status

Overall Assessment: Critical deterioration since December 20. Major clashes reported in:

Northwest Tigray (January 3-5): Eritrean forces vs. Tigrayan militias

Eastern Border (January 7-9): ENDF engaging with unidentified armed groups

Central Tigray (January 10): Federal police clashing with protestors in Mekelle

Casualties: Estimated 240+ killed, 1,200+ displaced in January clashes. 2.2 Territorial Control 2.2 Territorial Control

Area	Control Status	Security Forces	Population Affected	Notes
Central Tigray	Federal Police/ENDF	Federal forces	3.1 million	Martial law declared Jan 8
Western Tigray	Amhara forces	Amhara SF, Fano	510,000	Reinforcements arriving
Northern Border	Eritrean forces	EDF brigades	310,000	Full military buildup
Eastern Border	ENDF	Federal military	210,000	Heavy artillery deployed
Southern	ENDF	Federal police/ENDF	340,000	Checkpoints every 20km

Active Conflict Zones

1. Adigrat-Adwa corridor: Heavy fighting reported
2. Western Tigray border: Amhara militia incursions
3. Shire area: Eritrean artillery bombardments
4. Mekelle outskirts: Federal forces establishing perimeter

1. Humanitarian Situation 3.1 Current Needs Assessment

Humanitarian situation has deteriorated to "catastrophic" levels according to internal UN assessments obtained January 9. Population in Need by Sector

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3.2 Humanitarian Response International Assistance (Current Status) International Assistance (Current Status)

Organization	Status	Access Level	People Reached (Jan)
WFP	Operations suspended Jan 6	No access	120,000 (pre-suspension)
UNICEF	Emergency operations only	15% access	85,000
WHO	Critical medevac only	10% access	42,000
UNHCR	Protection monitoring only	5% access	18,000
ICRC	Only operational agency	40% access	210,000
Funding Status (Emergency Appeal)

Funding and Access Crisis

• January Emergency Appeal: $650 million (6 months)
• Funded: $78 million (12%)
• Access Routes Closed:
  • Semera-Abala road (closed Dec 28)
  • Gondar-Shire route (closed Jan 3)
  • Air access restricted to UNHAS only
• Fuel reserves: 3 days remaining
• Food stocks: 7 days at 50% ration
• 12 NGOs suspended operations Jan 1-10

1. Reconstruction Efforts 4.1 Infrastructure Rehabilitation Priority Projects (Status as of Jan 10)

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         {"project": "School Reconstruction", "budget": 89, "progress": 30, "status": "Suspended"},
         {"project": "Road Network", "budget": 234, "progress": 40, "status": "Suspended"},
         {"project": "Power Grid", "budget": 156, "progress": 35, "status": "Suspended"},
         {"project": "Water Systems", "budget": 98, "progress": 25, "status": "Suspended"},
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4.2 Economic Recovery Key Recovery Indicators (Collapse) Indicator Pre-war (2019) Current (Jan 2026) Change (Since Oct 2025) GDP (billion USD) 4.8 2.1 -34% Agricultural production 100% 32% -23 percentage points Industrial capacity 100% 18% -14 percentage points Employment rate 92% 61% -16 percentage points School enrollment 89% 42% -26 percentage points Health service access 85% 28% -24 percentage points 5. Political Developments 5.1 Electoral Preparations

Status: Indefinitely suspended Federal Announcement: January 4 - "No elections until full stability restored" Regional Response: January 6 - "Unconstitutional suspension of democratic rights" Electoral Crisis

Democratic Process Frozen

• January 4 Federal Decree: All electoral preparations suspended
• Voter registration materials impounded
• International observer visas cancelled
• Political gatherings banned
• Constitutional Challenge: Tigrayan legal scholars filing complaint with African Court (Jan 9)
• International Reaction: EU, US, AU expressing "deep concern"

5.2 Federal-Regional Relations Crisis Points (January 2026) Issue Federal Action (Jan 2026) Regional Response Status Administration Appointed federal overseer Jan 6 Rejected as illegal Standoff Security Deployed 5 additional ENDF divisions Called for AU intervention Escalating Budget Frozen all transfers Dec 15 Declared "economic warfare" Complete freeze Communication Shut down regional media Jan 5 Using satellite phones Information blackout 6. Social Recovery 6.1 Return and Reintegration IDP Statistics (Rapid Reversal)

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6.2 Psychosocial Support Mental Health Crisis

Trauma counseling centers: 8 operational (down from 24)

Trained counselors: 42 remaining (145 previously)

People receiving support: 3,200 monthly (down from 28,000)

Emergency needs: Suicide rates increased 240% since November

Critical Gap: Psychotropic medication supply exhausted December 28. 7. International Engagement 7.1 Diplomatic Relations Emergency Diplomatic Activity (January 1-10) Date Action Parties Involved Outcome Jan 3 UNSC Emergency Session US, UK, France, Russia, China No consensus, statement of concern Jan 5 AU Peace and Security Council All members Called for "immediate restraint" Jan 7 US Special Envoy travel Samantha Power Denied entry visa Jan 9 EU Foreign Ministers call Josep Borrell, Ethiopian FM Agreement to "keep talking" Jan 10 China mediation offer Chinese Ambassador Accepted by federal govt, rejected by region 7.2 International Organization Presence Emergency Status Organization Presence

Organization	Status	Access	Critical Constraints
UN OCHA	Emergency mode	15%	No fuel, communications jammed
UNICEF	Life-saving only	10%	Supplies blocked at border
WHO	Collapsed health support	5%	Medical evacuation flights denied
WFP	Suspended	0%	All convoys halted
ICRC	Only medical operations	25%	Working under military escort

8. Economic Indicators

8.1 Economic Collapse

Key Metrics (January 2026 Crisis)

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      {"indicator": "Unemployment", "current": 38.7, "target": 18.0, "previous_quarter": 23.4},
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8.2 Investment and Development

Project Status (All Suspended)

• Mekelle Industrial Park: $45M — 0% progress since November
• Shire Agricultural Processing: $23M — vandalized January 4
• Adigrat Technology Hub: $12M — cancelled
• Humera Logistics Center: $34M — occupied by military

Total investment loss since December: $114 million

9. Media and Information

9.1 Media Landscape

Information Blackout (January 2026)

Media Type	Status	Federal Control
Television	All stations off air Jan 5	100%
Radio	2 state-run stations only	100%
Print Media	All newspapers banned	100%
Online	Internet shutdown 95%	100%
Social Media	Complete blockage	100%

9.2 Information Access

Communications Breakdown

• Mobile coverage: 18% of territory (down from 72%)
• Internet access: 2% of population (down from 45%)
• Satellite phones: Only option, requires military permit
• Information flow: Dependent on ICRC/ICRC satellite messengers

Information Warfare

• Total internet shutdown since January 5
• SMS blocked, voice calls monitored
• Satellite signal jamming reported
• Journalists: 17 detained, 3 missing

Internet access: 2% of population (down from 45%)

Satellite phones: Only option, requires military permit

Information flow: Dependent on ICRC/ICRC satellite messengers

Information Warfare

• Total internet shutdown since January 5
• SMS blocked, voice calls monitored
• Satellite signal jamming reported
• Journalists: 17 detained, 3 missing

Regional Response: - Clandestine radio broadcasts (30-minute daily windows) - Messenger networks re-established - Diaspora networks providing information bridge

1. Health System Recovery 10.1 Healthcare Infrastructure Collapse Facility Operational Status (January 2026)

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Health Indicators (Emergency) Indicator Current Emergency Threshold Status Maternal mortality 580/100k 300/100k Catastrophic Child immunization 28% 70% Collapsed Skilled birth attendance 18% 60% Collapsed Acute malnutrition 41% 15% Famine Conditions 11. Education System Recovery 11.1 School Closures Education Emergency

Schools open: 320 of 2,547 (12.6%)

Students attending: 180,000 of 1.6M (11%)

Teachers present: 1,200 of 12,000 (10%)

Schools occupied: 890 by military/IDPs

Higher Education (Complete Closure)

All universities closed since December 15. Campuses occupied by:

Mekelle University: ENDF barracks

Adigrat University: IDP shelter

Aksum University: Military storage

Shire University: Ruined, not functional

1. Environmental and Climate Issues 12.1 Environmental Emergency War Impact Intensifying

   Forest degradation: 45% total loss (up 10% since October)

   Soil erosion: Military trenches causing 55% increase

   Water pollution: 37% of sources now contaminated

   Agricultural land: 35% inaccessible due to mines/conflict

12.2 Climate Crisis Compounding Concurrent Disasters

Drought: Entering 4th consecutive failed rainy season

Locusts: Swarms reported in Eastern Tigray (Jan 8)

Temperature: +2.1°C above average (record high)

Food production: 68% below needs

1. Recent News & Updates text

January 10, 2026January 5-9, 2026December 2025

• 06:00: Heavy fighting resumes in Adigrat, civilian casualties reported
• 09:30: ICRC confirms 5 aid workers missing near Shire
• 12:15: Federal government announces "stabilization operation" in Central Tigray
• 15:45: UN reports complete aid blockade, 48-hour window to prevent famine
• 18:20: Satellite imagery shows Eritrean troop movements toward border
• 21:00: Clandestine radio broadcasts resume after 3-day blackout

• Jan 9: AU emergency mediation team arrives in Addis, access to Tigray denied
• Jan 8: Martial law declared in Central Tigray, curfew 18:00-06:00
• Jan 7: Major cabinet arrests, administration headquarters sealed
• Jan 6: Total communications blackout begins
• Jan 5: Interim President resigns, federal overseer appointed

• Dec 28: Last aid convoy enters Tigray before blockade
• Dec 22: Clashes resume along multiple borders
• Dec 18: Federal budget freeze announced
• Dec 15: Universities ordered closed, students sent home
• Dec 10: Security deterioration begins, first aid convoy turned back

1. Looking Ahead: Emergency Scenarios 14.1 Immediate Priorities (Next 72 hours)

Life-saving Interventions Required

Humanitarian Catastrophe Prevention: - Immediate aid corridor opening - Medical evacuation routes - Food distribution to 2.8M - Water purification supplies

Political Emergency: - High-level international mediation - Ceasefire agreement - Release of detained officials - Restoration of basic administration

Security Emergency: - Separation of forces - Civilian protection - De-escalation mechanisms - Monitoring deployment

14.2 Emergency Outlook (January-March 2026)

Worst-case Scenario (Current Trajectory):

Full-scale conflict resumption by January 20

Famine declaration by February

Complete administration collapse

Mass exodus of population

International intervention likely

Best-case Scenario (If Mediation Succeeds):

Ceasefire by January 15

Aid resumption by January 20

Political talks resume February

Gradual de-escalation

Basic services restored by March

Most Likely Scenario:

Protracted low-intensity conflict

Intermittent aid access

Parallel governance structures

Chronic humanitarian crisis

International community divided

Emergency Resources and Contacts Critical Contacts (January 2026) Life-saving Coordination

ICRC Emergency Line: Satellite phone only (+41 79 217 32 85)

UN OCHA Crisis Desk: Geneva-based (+41 22 917 1234)

AU Situation Room: Addis Ababa (+251 11 551 7700)

Diaspora Emergency Network: Signal/Telegram channels only

Information Sources (Limited Access)

UN Security Council Updates: https://www.un.org/securitycouncil

ICRC Operations: https://www.icrc.org/en/where-we-work/africa/ethiopia

Satellite Imagery Analysis: https://www.sentinel-hub.com/explore/sentinel-playground

Emergency Protocols

Aid workers: Follow ICRC security protocols only

Media: Use encrypted communications, satellite filing

Diplomats: Coordinate through AU emergency channels

Civilians: Community protection networks activated

This is an emergency situation report. Information is incomplete due to communications blackout. Verification level: Low to moderate. Cross-reference all information.

Primary source verification: ICRC field reports, satellite imagery analysis, diaspora networks, clandestine radio intercepts.

Report compiled under emergency conditions: January 10, 2026, 23:45 EAT Next update dependent on communications restoration

Emergency reporting chain:

Field observations → 2. Satellite messenger → 3. Diaspora hub → 4. International relay → 5. Public report

STATUS: CRISIS • BLACKOUT CONDITIONS • AID BLOCKADE • CONFLICT RESUMING